TAHLEQUAH — We’ve all heard the consumer wish-lists: If only Tahlequah had a certain restaurant, clothing retailer, electronics store or other business.

To many people, it seems logical that a prospective retailer could glance at a growing city like Tahlequah and, looking simply at population, decide to open up shop there. An established university surely helps sell the move, one might say.

Unfortunately for consumers, pulling in retailers isn’t quite as simple as that. A breakdown of data is necessary, said Ray Murphy of the Oklahoma Center for Rural Development, which is based at Northeastern State University in Tahlequah.

Murphy and Tahlequah Area Chamber of Commerce Executive Director David Moore visited with local leaders Monday afternoon to present an area demographics analysis and a gap analysis.

“The Chamber is now contracted with the city to become a retail developer,” said Moore. “We’re starting to gather a lot of important information.”

Moore said many large cities have the funds to purchase demographic data, but for rural cities like Tahlequah that cannot, Murphy and the Center for Rural Development provide a “good tool.”

Murphy explained the importance of breaking down demographic data. A map of Tahlequah and the surrounding communities compared a five-mile radius with a radius of 10 and 20 miles. Within a 20-mile radius, he said, the population in the last quarter of 2009 was nearly 70,000. Projected demographics for 2014 show a total population of about 75,000 within that 20-mile radius.

The demographic map provided by Murphy included nearly all of Cherokee County, with parts of Muskogee, Wagoner, Mayes, Delaware, Adair and Sequoyah counties.

The 25-34 age group represented the majority of the population in all three radius breakdowns. The majority of households within all of the three sections had an income of $50,000-74,999.

Murphy said he will now have new demographics each quarter to help local leaders keep accurate data in the hands of developers and others who can draw in business to the area.

“We generate three different types of reports,” said Murphy. “The first is a market profile.”

Included in that is important information about the population, like where people live, where income exists, ages of the population, the number of workforce employees and more.

“And we can add other data to that,” said Murphy. “For instance, retail: Where are the competitors? Where is the closest chain? Etceteras.”

He used Old Navy as an example. Leaders would try to see if other cities like Tahlequah house an Old Navy store. That could then be used to entice Old Navy - if those similar cities were successful - to look at putting one in Tahlequah.

A “GAP analysis” is also important. Murphy and Moore presented a gap analysis of Tahlequah from the last quarter of 2009. Sources used in the report include the U.S. Postal Service, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey, and more.

“How do we use it?” Murphy asked, posing a question he said others often have. “I’ve already used it to try and get some supermarkets in the state. How do we get them here?”

Growth is “a big deal,” said Murphy. It’s up to each community to convince a potential business that the community will continue to grow and prosper in ways that will make that entity successful.

“There are lots of things you can do to help get people here.”

Murphy used the McDonald’s and Burger King franchises as an example. Such retailers know they’ll be rewarded when opening a new location in major cities. In a day, the company officials could visit numerous potential sites in those large areas; a drive to rural cities like Tahlequah, however, would allow them to only scope out one or two potential locations in a day’s time. In other words, more work for potentially fewer sites when the numbers are counted at the end of the year.

Providing in-depth, crucial data to these retailers is likely the most effective approach to garnering their attention, Murphy said.

“It’s a deal-making process,” said Murphy. “As in, ‘What are you going to give me to be here?’”

Murphy presented a market outlook comparison through a gap analysis. Data detailed the demand, supply, and gap between those, of 31 types of establishments in the Tahlequah market area, as well as 40 major product lines.

By dollar amounts, the most in-demand establishment for the Tahlequah area in the last quarter of 2009 was general merchandise stores, which had a demand of more than $51 million and a supply of less than $9 million, leaving a gap of more than $42 million.

Grocery stores were second with a demand of more than $76 million, but a supply of only $43 million, leaving a gap of more than $33 million.

“If you look at the gap in supply and demand, you say, ‘If they’re not shopping here, where are they shopping?’” said Murphy. “Some place else. That’s exactly what it means.”

(On the flip side, data also indicates when supplies potentially exceed demand; gas stations in the Tahlequah area market, for instance, showed a demand of more than $61 million, and a supply of nearly $119 million.)

New data will soon be provided to local leaders to further their selling ability to potential businesses: daytime population information. “It becomes very important,” said Murphy. “How many people are here between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m., and where are they?”

Murphy said restaurants “survive during the week, and make their money on the weekends, ” so such information would especially be pertinent so they can look at their potential for business during their breakfast hours, lunch hours, dinner hours, and late-night hours on weeknights.

“Having this data, these reports, is a way to prove they can be successful here,” said Murphy.

Moore said the Chamber, in partnership with the Cherokee Nation, will be placing 35 traffic counters in Tahlequah next month in an attempt to see where people are coming to and going in the city - particularly, along Muskogee Avenue, and corridors leading to that street.

Murphy said there’s so much more involved, even beyond demographic supply-and-demand data, like quality of life needs for management teams that would be moving to the area.

Building relationships with developers is another must-do, he said, because many large retailers won’t pay for land or construction to build a facility. Developers or even cities buy the land and build the facility just to get the business to town. Large retailers like Walmart and Lowe’s then help draw others to their area, and sales tax money helps repay those costs.

Many companies need more than one city’s location to make their efforts worth-while. If, for instance, QuikTrip’s  closest sites to Tahlequah are in Tulsa, it’s not feasible to drive a tanker truck to Tahlequah, which is completely out of the way from other stops.

He suggested the company might, however, take a second look if they could also sustain a store in Wagoner and Muskogee.

Entertainment also plays a vital role.

“People move to places where there are nice things to do,” said Murphy. “It’s not the local workforce that they are going to be worried about. It’s the management team they have to bring in. What can you do [outside of work] when you get here?”

Murphy encouraged local leaders not to take for granted what Tahlequah has to offer.

“Sometimes, because we’ve been in a place for so long, we wonder why anyone else would want to experience the things that city has to offer,” said Murphy. “But they do.”

Moore said the city is now frequently contacted by business officials who want to bring their company to town, but want to start with a tour.

Moore said he has several planned this week, and invited local leaders to keep him abreast of potential sites that could house a business. He also invited Realtors to work with the Chamber - “quietly,” if need be – on bringing businesses to town. He said the Chamber’s new role with the city as a retailer developer shouldn’t be considered competition to real estate companies.

“To us, it’s still all about Tahlequah,” said Moore.

Murphy said the end result should be an in-depth report with all of the information the center can assist in gathering. That report, he said, should be updated and passed along frequently to anyone who might share it with potential business officials, including developers.

Tahlequah market area gap analysis

Numbers below represent the fourth-quarter data of 2009, and are rounded off.

Automobile dealers: Demand, $83 million; Supply, $75 million

Beer, wine, liquor stores: Demand, $6 million; Supply, $1.5 million

Book, periodical, music stores: Demand, $4.5 million; Supply, $1.5 million

Clothing stores: Demand, $15 million; Supply, $6 million

Department stores: Demand, $34.5 million; Supply, $40.5 million

Electronics, appliance stores: Demand, $8 million; Supply, $2 million

Full-service restaurants: Demand, $20 million; Supply, $7 million

Health, personal care stores: Demand, $29 million; Supply, $13 million

Limited-service eating places: Demand, $26 million; Supply, $16.5 million

Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument stores: Demand, $6 million; Supply, $6 million